One or more of the 2023–25 World Test Championship finalists may be decided by the current Test series between South Africa and Sri Lanka.

A match between South Africa and Sri Lanka is likely to provide one or more memorable moments at international competitions. It remains to be seen if the current Test series—which is a part of the World Test Championship, after all—will produce something along those lines, but one thing is certain: there will almost likely be a finalist.

Here is the current state of the teams before we get into further detail.

After the first Test between Bangladesh and the West Indies, the World Test Championship 2023–25 points table

Team	Played	Won	Draw	Lost	Deduction	Points	PCT
India	15	9	1	3	4	110	61.11
Australia	13	8	1	4	10	90	57.69
Sri Lanka	9	5	0	4	0	60	55.56
New Zealand	11	6	0	5	0	72	54.55
South Africa	8	4	1	3	0	52	54.17
England	19	9	1	9	19	93	40.79
Pakistan	10	4	0	6	8	40	33.33
West Indies	10	2	2	6	0	32	26.67
Bangladesh	11	3	0	8	3	33	25

What does South Africa and Sri Lanka have ahead of them?

Sri Lanka leads South Africa by a small margin (55.56 to 54.17), but South Africa is well-positioned to make up the difference as the hosts.

On the WTC points table, South Africa is ranked sixth, while Sri Lanka is ranked third. South Africa vs. Pakistan and Sri Lanka vs. Australia are the final two-match home series for both teams in this cycle, following the current two-Test match in South Africa.

Sri Lanka would reach 63.64 and South Africa 63.33 if they win these home series 2-0, but that would not include the current series. In the event of a 1-1 draw, South Africa will finish on 61.11 and Sri Lanka on 61.11 (on par with the present PCT in India).

But what if no one shares the series? Sri Lanka will achieve 53.85 and South Africa will reach 69.54 if they win 2-0. However, South Africa will drop to 52.78 and Sri Lanka will rise to 69.23 if they win 2-0, as they have done in the past. In other words, a team can qualify with a 2-0 victory here as long as they sweep the other series. Conversely, a 0–2 loss will virtually ensure their elimination.

How about 1-0 margins? If the home team prevails, Sri Lanka will drop to 56.41 and South Africa to 63.89. The matching numbers, however, will be 55.56 and 64.10 in the event that the hosts lose. These will help them qualify or be eliminated, like previously. Finally, a 0-0 result will place South Africa at 58.33 and Sri Lanka at 58.97.

Why is this series a playoff, then?

The prospective final PCTs for South Africa and Sri Lanka have been shown to us. But New Zealand, Australia, and India are also vying for a last spot.

Pakistan is definitely in the running, but their best chance is 52.38, which would require a 2-0 victory in South Africa. Although qualifying from even there is mathematically feasible, too many low-probability occurrences must occur for that to happen.

We previously thought Sri Lanka will defeat Australia by a score of 2-0. Australia should win their current series against India, and by as small a margin as feasible, for the sake of both teams.

For example, a 3-2 win will enable Australia finish on 55.26 and India on 53.51. The PCTs, however, will show 60.53 for Australia and 48.25 for India if Australia wins 4-1. However, a 3-2 victory would allow Australia to achieve 50.00 and India to reach 58.77. South Africa and Sri Lanka will benefit even more from a draw or two. India’s PCT will be 51.75 and Australia’s 53.51 if they win 2-1. It is obvious that South Africa and/or Sri Lanka are more likely to finish ahead of one or both of the teams if the margin of victory in an Australian match is less.

Supporting England, who can’t score more than 48.86 against New Zealand, is also crucial for both teams. If they lose 0–3, they will drop to 42.86, 1-2 to 50.00 (which is equivalent to a 0-0 tie), 0–1 to 47.62, and 0–2 to 45.24 instead. On the other hand, South Africa and Sri Lanka will be threatened if New Zealand begins to prevail. With a 1-0 victory, they will reach 54.76, 2-0 to 59.52, 2-1 to 57.14, and 3-0 to 64.29.

Therefore, the South Africa-Sri Lanka series will determine at least one of the two spots in the WTC final.